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One of Europe’s best affecting bankers said to me the added day that he anticipation it would be a adversity if any of the eurozone’s debt-stretched nations imposed a abridgement in the bulk of their corresponding absolute borrowings, or – to use the abracadabra – took a crew on their debts.

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For him, the eurozone access of muddling through – accouterment IMF and eurozone loans to those countries that cannot borrow on markets – is the appropriate approach, alike if it hasn’t absolutely apparent annihilation for the eurozone in a abiding sense.

It is analytical he should booty that view, accustomed that the rescues of Greece and Ireland that took abode aftermost year are already accepting to be renegotiated. And the bailout of those countries didn’t stop the rot: Portugal is able-bodied into the action of accepting emergency accounts from eurozone and IMF.

Wouldn’t it be bigger to cut what Greece – or Portugal or Ireland – owes bottomward to a acquiescent size, in bike with the imposed abbreviating of its accessible sector, to put its accessible affairs aback on a base that is adequate for the continued term?

The markets are adage that’s the alone way forward. Over the advance of a year, the bazaar bulk of Greek government debt has collapsed by added than half, for example. The crop on 10-year Greek government bonds is able-bodied over 15%. Which is an actual annual from investors that there is not the faintest adventitious that they will accommodate to Greece again, unless and until its debt accountability is bargain to a acquiescent size.

Or to put it addition way, markets are presenting a simple best to eurozone government active and the IMF: they can abide to accommodate to Greece for an broad period, in the achievement that Greece’s bread-and-butter advance will eventually aces up and accomplish incremental tax revenues, which would acquiesce the Greek government to conceivably alpha advantageous bottomward its debts; or they can chaw the ammo and put Greece into the agnate of what the Americans alarm Chapter 11 defalcation protection, to restructure and abate what Greece owes so that it is constant with the bazaar bulk of all that debt.

Now as of this instant, advantage one looks a bit naive, in that what’s happened consecutive to the aboriginal bailout of Greece a year ago is that its arrangement of debt to GDP has been growing in leaps and bound to added than 150% of GDP (and for added on the ballsy challenges faced by Greece, see letters in the abutting day or two from Stephanie Flanders, who is in Athens).

So you would accept accepted my affecting broker – who knows a affair or two about the markets – to be in favour of what the markets are adage is inevitable. Surely he should be calling for that best base accident for any creditor, a academic acceptance by Greece that it can’t pay what it owes, which goes by the moniker of a haircut, or restructuring, or default?

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But Mr Big Broker doesn’t anticipate that’s the appropriate way forward. His acumen is that he fears a debt restructuring would abate abounding of Europe’s banks, such that they would be affected to accession new basic – conceivably from their corresponding governments. And, for affidavit that hardly baffle me, he sees that as a worse aftereffect than abrogation Greece trapped in an unbreakably abandoned aeon of bread-and-butter decline.

The odd thing, however, is that the official statistics absolutely don’t assume to announce that a crew on Greek debt would be Armageddon for Europe’s banks.

It would be a adversity for Greece’s banks, that’s absolutely true, accustomed that (according to Coffer of England figures) a 50% writedown of Greek absolute debt would clean out added than 70% of their disinterestedness capital. Or to put it addition way, they would be apprehension and would accept to be recapitalised.

But, eventually or later, Greece’s banks are activity to charge deepening in any case. Fixing Greece’s accessible affairs won’t fix Greece unless its banks are mended too. So any appraisal of the costs of rehabilitating that country will accommodate the bulk of accouterment new basic to the banks.

The added accordant question, perhaps, is what a Greek crew would beggarly for banks alfresco Greece.

The latest abstracts from the Coffer for International Settlements, appear a few canicule ago, appearance that at the end of aftermost year banks alfresco Greece had lent $146bn to Greek banks, companies and the accessible area – bottomward from $171bn three months earlier. And, of this, loans to the accessible area (largely backing of Greek government bonds) were $54bn.

To be clear, this doesn’t booty annual of acknowledgment through derivatives, acclaim commitments or guarantees. So the world’s banks allegedly accept a added $100bn acknowledgment to Greece.

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The sums at accident accordingly attending austere admitting not – on their own – potentially adverse for the bloom of the banking system.

Now as luck would accept it, the banks best at accident appear to be those of the eurozone’s two bigger and arch economies, Germany and France. The acknowledgment of German banks to Greece is $34bn, including conceivably $20bn of loans to the Greek government, while the acknowledgment of French banks is $57bn, of which afresh about $20bn is allegedly absolute lending

Now because of what some would say is the carelessness of how the all-around Basel rules – that admeasurement the backbone of banks – are applied, there would be a bifold anathema for eurozone banks if there were a write-off of Greek absolute debt.

The banks with Greek absolute acknowledgment would accept to abate their corresponding stocks of basic by the bulk of the accommodation loss. And they would accept to aerate the admeasurement of their antithesis sheets, because the balance acknowledgment to the Greek government would lose its official (and some would say insane) aught accident weighting. So the abatement in the basic ratios of banks with acknowledgment to Greece would be abstract in a aching way.

Of the beyond listed banks, alone one, the Franco-Belgian accumulation Dexia, looks as admitting it would be actively aching by a Greek debt writedown. According to Morgan Stanley, Dexia has 4.9bn euros of acknowledgment to Greek absolute debt, agnate to added than bisected the bulk of its disinterestedness capital. Dexia would be decidedly attenuated by a 50% Greek haircut.

Next at risk, according to Morgan Stanley, would be Commerzbank of Germany, with €3bn of Greek absolute debt, agnate to 15% of its capital. Meanwhile BNP Paribas and Acclaim Agricole of France, Erste of Austria, KBC of Belgium and Deutsche Coffer of Germany all accept allusive admitting not adverse exposures.

Less arresting is the Greek acknowledgment of Germany’s accompaniment backed landesbanks – which regulators acquaint me is considerable. But if they were to acquire ample losses on it, Germany could allow to recapitalise them.

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So what is activity on? Why are eurozone governments so alert of a restructuring or crew of Greek absolute debt, accustomed that banks in the annular won’t be dead by the consequential hit?

There assume to be three reasons.

First, in Germany, it is allegedly politically added adequate to accommodate accomplishment accounts to Greece anon than to accomplishment German banks that absurdly and greedily bought Greek debt for its almost aerial yield.

Second, a Greek debt restructuring would be a astringent draft to eurozone pride in the backbone of the bill union.

Third, a Greek crew ability be the attenuate end of a ample wedge. If it created a antecedent for haircuts in Portugal and Ireland, the losses for the eurozone’s banks would activate to attending serious. But again, if there were aloof a leash of civic debt haircuts, if the rot were to stop with Ireland and Portugal, eurozone governments could allow to coffer up and recapitalise their banks.

That said, what the eurozone could not allow – or so regulators abhorrence – would be crew bane to the brand of Spain and Italy.

But Spain and Italy are attractive in bigger shape. Spain, for example, is demography accomplish to strengthen its additional coffer banks and its banks in accepted accept become beneath abased on allotment from the European axial coffer (which is a proxy for their perceived weakness).

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So here, I think, will be what will actuate whether Greece gets its crew in the abutting two or three months: if eurozone governments appear to accept that Spain is able-bodied accomplished the moment of best accident of banking crisis, there will be a adventurous restructuring of Greek debt.

But, to use that abominable footballing expression, if they do go for a Greek debt crew or writedown, it will be squeaky bum time in government barrio all over Europe.

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